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I’ve been trying to understand why a person such as Donald Trump would draw the following he has. The stark contradiction between his character and American values, the clarity with which he disdains democracy and the institutions that safeguard it, the ugly pettiness of his discourse, all of these qualities are front and center in his campaign. He does not hide his hand, pretending that he would bring anything other than narcissistic caprice to the office of the president. And yet, as Iowa showed in the caucus, a strong majority of Republicans find him to be America’s best choice.

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I’ve been asking for a while if there’s something in the water in the United States that impedes brain function, but that’s just a snarky comment on American politics from across the pond. Then it occurred to me that in fact, the 2024 election is all about church vs. state. Someone recently noted (apologies for forgetting who) that America expresses in religion what France expresses in politics. It is an excellent comparison: the US has a broad range of religious groups and practices, each with its nuances of belief, but only two main political parties. France has a wide spectrum of political parties, each with its shades of grey, but few religions: Christianity split into Catholic and Protestant; Judaism and Islam. While political fracturing in France can look like the crazing on old porcelain teacup, in the US the teacup hit the floor and broke in two.

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And it seems this year, in ways not done in the past, that the two groups have split into those in favor of a state, and those in favor of a church. Those who prefer a state would support a candidate with qualifications, experience, respect and a social outlook that was similar to their own. Those who prefer a church want to belong to a tribe, to be a group that places all its faith in one leader, no matter what. You could call it the Jesus position, in that everything the leader does is good because it is he who did it. This is a religious relationship rather than a political one.

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Yet it is the position of Trump’s supporters today. He does not offer them an economic program, or social justice, or diplomatic reassurance in an increasingly dangerous world. He offers himself. He speaks in superlatives about himself, and his supporters seem to agree: his will be done. If they are members of his sect, they have no need to try to understand others or this complicated world, no, they can declare their faith in the leader and that is enough.

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Will the majority of American voters, as well as the electoral college, see the risks of a second Trump presidency? Will faith in democratic institutions outweigh the pull of belonging to a tribe? We will be watching closely, with hope, faith and prayer, for a secular result in the new government.

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(2024)